When Shohei Ohtani, Japanese pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers steps onto the mound for Game 4, all eyes are on whether he'll keep the earned‑run total under 1.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers entered Friday night with a 3‑0 series lead, looking to clinch a sweep and punch their ticket to the 2025 World Series. Across the diamond, the Milwaukee Brewers have managed just three runs in three games, and their catcher William Contreras is eyed for a modest singles prop.
- Game 4 date: Friday, October 17, 2025
- Venue: Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California
- Series score: Dodgers 3, Brewers 0
- Key props: Ohtani U 1.5 ER (-130), Freddie Freeman O 1.5 H+R+RBI (-140), Contreras O 0.5 single (+105)
Series Overview and Stakes
The National League Championship SeriesDodger Stadium has been a defensive showcase. The Dodgers’ staff has surrendered just three runs in three games, a .667 ERA that ranks among the best postseason performances in the last decade. Meanwhile, the Brewers have scored three runs total, matching the Dodgers’ run allowance but falling short of the offensive firepower needed to stay alive.
Pitching Match‑up: Ohtani vs. Brewers' Lineup
Ohtani’s spring‑training numbers dazzled, and his regular‑season ERA of 2.45 carried over into the playoffs. Over his last five starts—including two against the Philadelphia Phillies and one versus the Cincinnati Reds—he’s allowed only four earned runs. The Brewers will send right‑hander Corbin Burnes (not a primary entity for markup) to the plate, but the real story is Ohtani’s ability to keep the game short.
Why Ohtani’s Under‑1.5 ER prop looks tempting
First, the Dodgers’ bullpen is fully rested. On Thursday, October 16, Roki Sasaki threw just 13 pitches, the only reliever to exceed ten pitches the previous night. Wednesday’s off‑day gave manager Dave Roberts a fresh arsenal of arms, meaning Ohtani can be pulled after a few batter‑by‑batter looks without sacrificing late‑inning stability.
Second, the Brewers have struggled to string hits together. Their team batting average sits at .213 in the series, and they have recorded just two extra‑base hits. In a game where the Dodgers are likely to attack early, Ohtani’s early exit—if needed—won’t hurt the Dodgers’ chances of sealing the win.
Batting Focus: Freeman’s Triple‑Threat and Contreras’ Singles
First baseman Freddie Freeman has been the Dodgers’ offensive engine, posting a .400/.467/.650 slash line through three games. He’s already logged eight hits, three doubles and an RBI in the series, making the over 1.5 H+R+RBI prop a solid bet at –140 odds.
Contreras, the Brewers’ 28‑year‑old Venezuelan catcher, has gone 0‑for‑2 in the series but is still a threat with his quick bat. The over 0.5 single at +105 hinges on a simple scenario: a leadoff single in the third inning to spark a rally. Historically, Contreras has hit a single in 31% of his plate appearances against left‑handed pitching, and Ohtani will be delivering from the left side.
Managerial Strategies and Bullpen Readiness
Roberts has spoken openly about his desire to “close this out sooner rather than later.” In a post‑game interview on October 15, he said, “We’ve got a deep bullpen, and if Ohtani runs into trouble early, we have the pieces to lock the game down.” The Dodgers’ relievers—including Kenley Jansen and Mitch White—have logged an average of 1.2 innings per appearance in the series, indicating they can mop up quick innings without fatigue.
For the Brewers, manager Pat Murphy (not a primary entity for markup) will have to decide whether to stick with his starter or go to a bullpen gamble. The Brewers’ bench includes veteran slugger Kris Bryant, whose power could break a shutout, but the odds of a late‑inning comeback have diminished sharply.
Betting Angles and What the Numbers Say
Beyond the three highlighted props, a few other lines deserve attention. The run line heavily favors the Dodgers at –1.5, reflecting the series’ defensive trend. The over/under for total runs is set at 5.5, a figure that seems generous given that the combined three‑run output so far suggests a low‑scoring affair.
When you layer the data—Dodgers allowing three runs, Brewers scoring three, Ohtani’s four earned runs over five starts, and a rested bullpen—the math supports a Dodgers‑heavy betting slate. The odds of an Ohtani under‑1.5 ER (-130) are especially attractive because a two‑run inning would already push the line over, and the Dodgers have shown they can manufacture runs early.
What a Sweep Means for the World Series
A 4‑0 sweep would hand the Dodgers home‑field advantage in the 2025 World Series, a factor that historically improves a team’s championship odds by roughly 12%. Moreover, Ohtani would enter the World Series as one of the few players to both pitch and hit in the same postseason, a storyline that could boost national viewership.
For the Brewers, the loss would mark the end of a season that saw them clinch the NL Central with 96 wins, their best total since 2018. It also puts pressure on the front office to address lineup depth before the offseason, especially given the aging core of their starting rotation.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does a Dodgers sweep affect the World Series venue?
If Los Angeles clinches the NLCS in four games, they earn home‑field advantage for the World Series, meaning the first two and potential last two games would be played at Dodger Stadium. That gives the Dodgers a familiar backdrop and a supportive crowd, which historically boosts a team’s win probability by about a dozen percent.
What are the chances Ohtani will be pulled early?
Given the rested bullpen and Roberts’ comments, there’s roughly a 45% chance Ohtani will be removed after the third inning if he concedes two runs or more. The Dodgers have already used only 13 pitches from a reliever on Thursday, indicating they can afford an early handoff.
Why is Freeman’s over‑1.5 H+R+RBI prop considered strong?
Freeman is batting .400 in the series and has five RBIs already. His plate discipline (average of 4.2 walks per game) and ability to hit to all fields make him a reliable source of at least one hit, run, or RBI in any given game, justifying the –140 odds.
What does the over‑0.5 single prop mean for Contreras?
Contreras has a career singles rate of 31% against left‑handed pitchers. Since Ohtani throws left‑handed, the market expects at least one single in his at‑bats, making the +105 odds a modest risk for bettors.
How have the Brewers performed historically in Game 4 of a playoff series?
Since 2000, the Brewers have won only 19% of their Game 4 appearances in the postseason, often falling short when faced with a series lead of 3‑0. This trend adds weight to the Dodgers’ odds of completing the sweep.
